I often hear from families of students who have achieved all that has been asked of them in their high school years, from winning top grades and standardized test scores to excelling in their extracurricular activities. Their parents proudly proclaim that their students plan to apply to multiple Ivy League colleges.  

Alas, only a minuscule fraction of them will gain admission. The reason is that although the published acceptance rates of the Ivies are about 5%, several groups receive preferential treatment.

Approximately 10-20% of matriculants at the Ivies are athletic recruits. See Athletic Recruiting Offers Greater Odds Of Ivy League Admissions Than Legacy Status; Ivy League Athletic Recruiting: Risks & Rewards | Ivy Coach; Chances of playing sports at Ivy League Schools | Scholarship Stats.com (the number of students playing on varsity teams at some Northeastern colleges range as high as 35% of the class, although it is unclear whether each of them received special consideration in admissions).

If you want a depressing view concerning the reasons for this emphasis on athletics, see Q&A With Malcolm Gladwell: “Revenge of the Tipping Point”. (Spoiler: follow the money.)

Also ahead in line are legacies – students whose families attended the college. They account for another 10-15% of Ivy League students. Legacies are nearly four times as likely to be admitted as non-legacy students at some of our most elite colleges (including Ivy League colleges). See How Big Is the Legacy Boost at Elite Colleges? – The New York Times, July 27, 2023.

Less known is that many of those admitted are from high schools that are far more exclusive and affluent than we have here in Tucson. A significant number of those students attend “day schools.”  These are private schools, often residential, where bright students enjoy opportunities for impressive internships and other extracurricular activities not available to most students. Even Tucson’s strongest academic high schools are not structured to provide those opportunities.

Of the 7,000 high schools that have sent students to Harvard, one in 11 students attended one of just 21 high schools across the United States. See Most Schools Dream of Sending Students to Harvard. These 21 Expect To.  None of these high schools are in Tucson. Although a couple of these favored academies are public high schools, private schools are greatly over-represented at the Ivies. See Can You Get into an Ivy League from a Public School?  | Ivy Coach.

Once you factor in the students on these favored tracks, the admission rates are closer to 1% or 2% of everyone who applies outside those categories; some are international students from countries with their own elite academies.

But I am Ivy League material!

When I mention these statistics, many clients reply that they are certainly among the top 1-2% of students in their high schools. Alas, that is not how it works. Virtually every applicant to Ivy League colleges is in the top 1-2% of their class in terms of GPA, academic rigor, test scores, and extracurricular activities. Only 1% to 2% of those elite students will be admitted.

A quote from writer and columnist Thomas Friedman about China is apropos:

The saying in China is, “If you’re one in a million, there’s still 1,300 people just like you.”

The old meme about “the best of the best” really does apply here. If you are one of those top performers in your high school, only 1-2% of you are likely to get into an Ivy League college.

How do you know if you have a serious chance of admission despite these odds?  Here are some factors that may make you a contender:

• Your teachers’ recommendations describe you as “the finest student in my 30 years of teaching.”
• You have won national scholastic competitions (e.g., U.S. Math Olympiad team member or qualifier, Regeneron Science Fair winner, or top finisher).
• You are the author of a paper published in a major scientific journal (not some high school “journal of research” like those discussed in Extracurricular Activities Are Essential for College Admission).
• You are a U.S. Olympian, a featured soloist performing on national stages, or a nationally recognized leader of a worthy cause (e.g., human rights, the environment, public health).
• You formed and are running a non-profit company with a national impact (not a “company” put together by your parents with a nice brochure that will disappear 10 minutes after you receive your acceptance).
• You have made national news and have a compelling personal history (usually demonstrating the ability to overcome a disadvantaged background).

This list is not exclusive, but you get the idea. You are at a huge disadvantage if you are not an athlete or other star performer or a legacy. Unless you have spectacular achievements to accompany your outstanding grades and test scores, your Ivy League application will be a moonshot. It is also time-consuming, as those colleges tend to require more essays on difficult subjects than other colleges.

Although my philosophy is to help clients apply to schools they choose, including the Ivies, I urge you to be realistic when doing so. If you want to try a “moonshot,” perhaps just apply to one Ivy League college.

Your chances may not be much better at other “dream” colleges

I was dismayed the other day to come across this article: I Used to Dream of Sending My Kid to an Ivy League School, But These 10 Colleges Now Top My List – 24/7 Wall St.  The premise is that you do not need an Ivy League education to have a great career; it lists ten colleges as alternative destinations.

I agree with that premise. But consider this list of ten colleges with their corresponding 2024 acceptance rates:

1.         MIT:  4%

2.         Stanford:  5%

3.         Duke:  5%

4.         University of Chicago:  5%

5.         Caltech:  3%

6.         Northwestern:  7%

7.         NYU:  8%

8.         Rice:  7%

9.         Vanderbilt:  5%

10.       Williams:  7%

Yes, those numbers are better than the acceptance rates for Ivy League colleges, but not by much. Those acceptance rates also do not account for the fact that, like the Ivy League, many of their openings will be filled by star performers, legacies, and students from elite United States and overseas schools.

Further, you will still compete for admission at each of those colleges against your peers. Most will be the same students applying to the Ivies – they will be using these colleges as their second choice.

Of course, some of the listed colleges are much more than “second choice” material. Caltech and MIT are more challenging to get into than most of the Ivies, even if you are a STEM genius. Stanford is also just as impenetrable as the Ivies. Your chances are better at the other seven colleges listed, but that is not saying much. I dare to say that most of those – perhaps except NYU – are also moonshots for all but the truly exceptional student.

Top students have plenty of other options

The good news is that dozens of realistic alternatives exist for high-achieving students nationwide. College counselors can identify so many other powerhouse colleges that the current fixation on the Ivies and other top-20 colleges borders on the absurd.

One example is the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta (Georgia Tech). This recent Forbes article is probably making the rounds there:  The New Ivies: How Georgia Tech Is Putting Job Placements Over Exclusivity. The subtitle proclaims: “By luring tech companies to Atlanta while simultaneously growing its enrollment, [Georgia Tech] is creating a super-sized rival to MIT, Caltech, and Stanford.” 

There are dozens of top colleges around the country with acceptance rates no lower than 10% that are as good or better as the Ivies and most of their equivalents for many careers, particularly those in STEM. (However, it’s tough to top Caltech and MIT.) 

This is particularly true given that many careers require graduate school. In those job markets, employers focus on the prestige of the college where you earn your advanced degree. Your undergraduate institution does not matter. It is difficult to overstate the importance of this fact. You can get into the most prestigious graduate schools from dozens of excellent undergraduate institutions, including Georgia Tech. Indeed, law and medical schools prioritize grades and scores on the MCAT and LSAT, respectively, so you may enjoy better odds of winning the prize by racking up a better GPA at a less competitive college. (That is a topic for another day.)

A very few students should apply to these “dream” colleges

For the right student, applying to colleges with sub-10% acceptance rates can make sense. Your qualifications may put you in the “contender” category, and you may benefit from studying with students with similar interests and academic abilities. The Ivies also provide outstanding need-based financial aid; their alumni networks in certain areas (e.g., finance) are second to none. Graduating from one will mark you as elite in many areas of our society (perhaps less so in STEM). Just manage your expectations and include a wide range of colleges in your search and applications.